November 30, 2013

Weekly Forex Market Rhythm | November 30, 2013


EUR/USD Forex Market Rhythm

Long remains as consolidation takes hold

EU maintained the tight ranges prevalent in European trading as EZ CPI turned into a non-event. 

The pair held to roughly 1.3595-1.3620 ranges. 

Corporate bids held the bottom while hedge funds were touted being on top with offers lined up to 1.3650. Aiding to cap was news that EU & IMF inspectors have called off an Athens visit scheduled next week as Greece has failed to meet commitments. 
Continue Reading

November 23, 2013

4 Hour MACD Strategy: Study by Heart Transcript




TRANSCRIPT OF AUDIO FILE #4496 OF PHILLIP


Right, I am going to run through the market motion one more time. I see a lot of people still doing counter trades, counter-trend trades against the trend. Like the one we discuss on the daily Wrapup about that Swissy coming back to the 21EMA.

This chart and this MP3, you got to have it in your heart, not in your head, in your heart. If you look at the purple rectangle on the chart, the price break through the 89SMA blue line. Point 1, 2, 3 and 4 are just there to let you know that you can establish your market breathing or channel or whatever you want to call it so that you can know in what or between which boundaries does the market moves.

Continue Reading

4 Hour MACD Strategy: Price Movement Rules


This was posted by Golfer on the Forex Factory 4 Hour MACD Thread
The post summarize the price movement rules based on 4 Hour MACD Strategy
Continue Reading

Trader's Digest: Recognizing Trading Emotions


Controlling your emotion before, during and after each trade is essential. Most of our decision are made based on our emotion. Trading is obviously one of the most emotional draining activity.
It requires us to have total control of ourselves. Which in my opinion, the hardest part of all.
We have 'beast' live within us.

Continue Reading

November 17, 2013

Weekly Forex Market Rhythm: November 15, 2013


weekly forex market review
Weekly Market Change | Nov 8 - 15, 2013

GBPUSD - Sterling Boosted, Growth Prospects


LONDON, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Sterling extended gains against the euro and the dollar for a third straight day on Friday, drawing support from hawkish comments by Bank of England policymaker Martin Weale.

Weale said in a speech the central bank could not ignore an increase in inflation expectations and may need to tighten monetary policy before all the spare capacity in the economy is used up.

"The positive tone from the inflation report as well as the upgraded forecasts are helping sterling," said Alex Edwards, head of corporate sales at UKForex. "We could see some profit taking into the weekend as volumes dwindle, but overall the trend looks higher."

Traders expect sterling's gains to be more pronounced against the euro, given growing expectations that the European Central Bank may have to loosen policy further to beat falling inflation.
Continue Reading

November 11, 2013

Forex Market Rhythm: GBPUSD broke below 1.6


GBPUSD broke below 1.6 - November 11, 2013


Sterling dipped against the euro on Monday, pulling away from a 10-month high, as investors kept to the sidelines before this week's Bank of England quarterly inflation report and jobs data.

Consequently this bodes well for sterling, and while gains against the dollar are likely to be limited, euro/sterling is set for a further downward correction, with a break (though) 83.00 on the cards shortly.

But the pound could get a boost on Wednesday if the BoE raises its growth and unemployment forecasts and brings forward the market expectations for when interest rates will rise. Strong UK jobs data on Wednesday would also lift the pound. -Reuters

Continue Reading

November 10, 2013

Forex Market Rhythm: GBPUSD - How strong is 1.6?

GBPUSD market rhythm
Daily GBPUSD chart

Sterling falls on strong U.S. jobs data, weak UK trade 

Main points for weekend (Nov 7)

  • UK trade deficit unexpectedly at widest since Oct 2012 
  • Strong US jobs data pushes sterling/dollar lower 
  • Weak UK trade data also weighs on pound

The pound GBP=D4 fell 0.8 percent to $1.5964, taking it closer to Monday's three-week low of $1.5904.

"Sterling/dollar is under some downward pressure after the employment report from the U.S. revealed a healthier picture for jobs growth than had been anticipated," said Lee Hardman, currency economist at BTMU.

He said it was unlikely the Fed would begin to ease up on stimulus in December but that a January move was "very much in play. The pound could fall towards $1.57 by year-end, he said. (Reuters)


GBPUSD Market Rhythm

On the daily timeframe, GBPUSD are trying to re-test the red trend line I plotted. It was successfully failed to break above the resistance of 1.6120. Below, the 1.6 round number provided strong support which is repeatedly penetrated. 

1.61 provide heavy resistance, while there is also significant downward pressure after the NFP shows better than expected figures sparked fear about the fed tapper.



Continue Reading

November 9, 2013

US Economy Bucks Government Shutdown as October NFPs Crush Forecasts

Talking Points:
October NFPs surge by expectationsreigniting taper talk as US Treasury yields surge.
Unemployment Rate increases one-tenth of one percent to 7.3% as expected.
USDJPY surges back to ¥98.92, erasing most of yesterday’s steep losses.
The September US labor market report was delayed by two weeks as a result of the US government shutdown, although market participants hoping to have seen progress have been left disappointed. The US economy’s labor momentum slowed further in September, with jobs growth dropping by -23.3% from August.
Accordingly, with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate and forward guidance currently focused on bringing the Unemployment Rate down to 6.5% before QE3 is fully tapered, the potential silver lining for the report was a one-tenth of one percent drop in the jobless rate, exceeding the forecast for it to have held at 7.3%. As a result, the market reaction has been not purely USD-negative, but rather risk-positive.
Here’s the data lifting the US Dollar and hurting risk appetite:
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (OCT): +204K versus +120K expected, from +163K (revised higher from +148K).
- Change in Private Payrolls (OCT): +212K versus +125K expected, from +150K (revised higher from +126K).
- Unemployment Rate (OCT): 7.3% as expected, from 7.2%.
- Participation Rate (OCT): 62.8% from 63.2% [lowest since 1978].
Overall, the data paints a meager picture of the US labor market in September, which all but certainly deteriorated in October thanks to the US government shutdown. Accordingly, with the Federal Reserve having labeled US fiscal issues as a prime reason not to taper QE3 in September, we find that another hold at $85B/month next week is increasingly likely in the wake of today’s NFP report. Price action in FX markets after the NFP report suggests a similar outcome.
source: DailyFX

Continue Reading

November 5, 2013

Forex Market Rhythm: EUR, GBP and USD Index

usdindex market rhythm
USD Index 4 hour timeframe
As the market progress after the expectation of the Fed tappering, the USD start to loose its steam against other major currencies.

In the chart above, the USD Index (4 hour TF) was facing a resistance at around EMA 365 (80.75)
after trying to break through, leaving a shooting star with the tail slightly above EMA 365.

There is a good chance that it will head to EMA 21 (80.35). If true, will provide breathing room for other currencies to advance.

Continue Reading

Becoming the Black Belt Forex Trader



the basic of forex online trading


Forex Basics

Forex trading has become very popular of late. There are plenty of disgruntled stock traders who have had enough of the ups and downs of the stock markets and who are looking to invest their money elsewhere.

You see Forex advertised everywhere. Just open any page on your computer and Forex is in your face. Promises of making tons of money with the click of a tab entice even the most conservative investor to open an account and start trading. And indeed, trading Forex does sound easy.

However, it isn’t.

So don’t fall for all that hype about making Forex your new career or turning your $1000 into $100,000. It just isn’t going to happen. 

So let’s be honest. There are certainly people out there that are making money in Fx markets. These are not investors who have just gotten off the boat and have a bit of cash to burn. Those that make money in Forex are the ones who invest time and effort in knowing what Forex is all about and who then move forward.


Start with the basics

Like all things in life, you have to start with the basics. Learning about Forex markets, how currencies are traded and what affects their price movement is the first step in trading Forex. And there really is quite a lot to learn.

There are many online tutorials offered by brokers that teach the basics of Forex trading. There are also more extensive Forex courses provided free of charge by independent firms such FX Academy.  Without a clear understanding of Forex, you have no chance of coming out successful.

When you feel you have mastered the basics, the next step is open a demo account with a recommended broker. Choosing a broker that meets your goals and personality may take some time. There are hundreds of online brokers that claim to be the best of the bunch. Speak with a few experienced Forex traders and do your own research. Compare the features of several brokers and see which one offers you what you need. 

There are online Forex broker review sites which do the comparison for you and these are worth reading.

Once you have settled on a broker, I recommend you open a demo account for several months. Demo accounts provide you virtual money to use for trading. You trade live but without the risk of losing your money. These accounts give you the time you need to experience Forex trading upfront without the stress associated with real trading.

Another option offered by some brokers is the mini account where smaller amounts of deposit are required. Instead of depositing $1000 or $5000, with a mini account you can start trading with as little as $500.  Although the risk of losing too much money has been eliminated, I believe the experience gained by trading in a demo account is much more valuable than moving straight into a real account, albeit a mini one.

While trading in your demo account, you should be developing your own personal trading system. Make it as simple as you can and then test it out and see if it works. If not, move on to another one. 

Keep in mind that you will probably lose much more than you will win. About 80% of beginner traders lose all their money during the first few weeks of trading.


"Black belt is white that don't give up"

With some experience under your belt, you can move onto more advanced Forex tools which will help you be more successful. So be patient and don’t get emotionally involved. Forex trading can be profitable but it isn’t as easy as it looks.



Continue Reading

About ArrowFX

Technically analyze the forex market mainly on USDJPY, EURUSD and GBPUSD by using market rhythm method started by Philip Nel on Forex Factory. The thread started on 2007 and still alive.
Designed By Blogger Templates