EURUSD Focus: Break Below 1.36

EURUSD H4 Chart

Right!

My SELL order on EU was filled:

Entry : Short @1.36
1st Target : 1.3560 (previous low)
2nd Target would be 1.35 to make 1:2 R/R

SL @1.3660 which is above previous high.

EURUSD H1 Chart

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Forex Weekly Market Rhythm | January 6, 2014

AUDUSD H4 Chart | January 6, 2014

Right!

This is a  post about weekly forex market rhythm, for January 6 2014. Because trading market rhythm is based on 'anticipation' on what the price might do in near future by watching closely what they are doing right now.

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Forex Weekly Market Rhythm | December 23

EURUSD Daily Chart | December 22, 2013

Right,

Today I am posting about forex market rhythm on EURUSD, USDJPY and AUDUSD

EURUSD went down after the Fed announce the tapering. But the volatility and range of the move
somehow moderate. On the daily chart, EU still supported by the 21 day EMA (1.3665). Fail to close below will send the EU higher on Trend Continuation move.

EURUSD Weekly Chart | December 22, 2013

While on the weekly chart, I am expecting the EU to form the right shoulder both on MACD and the candlestick. Targeting 1.35.

USDJPY H4 Chart | December 22, 2013

USDJPY - Still on the uptrend, targeting the median line. Supported by the EMA 21 (103.80), and close above EMA 8 (104.17) may send the UJ to 104.80.

AUDUSD H4 Chart | December 22, 2013

AUDUSD - is on key support level (0.88). There is a chance that the trend will reverse soon. 

Current key resistances are:

• Round Number - 0.90
• 21 day EMA - 0.9050. Fail to break will resume the downtrend.

AUDUSD Daily Chart | December 22, 2013

Salam sukses dari Pondok Labu, Jakarta

Arrow

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Weekly Forex Market Rhythm | December 13, 2013

EURUSD Daily Chart | December 13, 2013

DOLLAR RISES ON CHANCES OF FED TAPER

The U.S. dollar hovered near a five-year high against the yen and rose against the euro on Friday, while global equity indexes slipped on growing concerns the U.S. Federal Reserve could surprise investors by scaling back its stimulus as early as next week.

While market participants in general expect the Fed to start paring back its stimulus no later than March, a growing number expect a reduction in the Fed's asset purchases may be announced at the central bank's Dec. 17-18 policy gathering.

In the daily chart, the EURUSD is forming a double top. It is a high probability reversal signal. 

It already hit 1.38 round numbers, it is possible that the EU want to catch breath before rallying further. 

A pullback to the midpoint EMA 8 and 21 is seen.

GBPUSD Daily Chart | December 13, 2013

TAPER FEAR NEAR THE TRENDLINE

On the chart above, is shown that the GBPUSD persistently tried to break above the trendline (around 1.65). The Fed tapering fear will keep the GU under it for a while. Any surprise on the Fed's 2013 last meeting next week may sent the GU above the trendline, or more likely, down to 89 day SMA at around 1.5990.

The nearest support seen at 1.6250 and 1.62 round number.

USDJPY H4 Chart | December 13, 2013

The USDJPY uptrend still intact. Seen in the H4 chart, the price is moving along the median lines. 

89 SMA also show solid support for the USD. 

With the imminent Fed tapering issue next week, we still see the US strength and a probability that the price may zoom above the median line, and targeting the upper line (around 105).

However, a break below the lower median line, and SMA 89 will send the UJ down to 101.50, the midpoint of SMA 89 and SMA 200.

Salam,

Arrow

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Weekly Forex Market Rhythm | December 6, 2013

EUR/USD Daily Chart | Dec 6, 2013

NFP stronger than expected, but was not enough

Euro zone bonds rose across the board on Friday, recouping some of this week's losses as U.S. jobs data came in above forecast but was not considered strong enough to prompt an immediate scaling back of U.S. stimulus, and as the European Central Bank gave no hints that further monetary easing was imminent.

The U.S nonfarm-payrolls rose 203k in November, modestly above the expected 180k increase. Revisions brought the October number down 4k to +200k and September up 12k to +175k. The unemployment rate sank to 7.0% (a new five-year low) from 7.3% as household survey figures remained volatile.

The continued moderately strong jobs reports, now looking more like they're satisfying the Fed's criteria of substantial, sustainable improvement, should be calming nerves at the Fed and pulling forward the schedule for tapering.

The 3-month average growth rate in nonfarm payrolls declined to +193k from +204k. It's still better than the +180k 6-month average and +189k YTD average, but still a little short of where some Fed doves would like to see it. While the 203,000 U.S. jobs print was above consensus in a Reuters poll, it was well within the 125,000 to 230,000 forecast range. (reuters)

Sterling up on strong housing data, shrugs off U.S. payrolls 

GBP/USD Daily Chart | Dec 6, 2013

Sterling gained on Friday after a report showed British house prices rose more than expected last month, reinforcing optimism about the economy and expectations that monetary policy tightening will be brought forward.

House prices rose at their fastest pace in more than six years in November but could slow as weak wage growth pressures personal finances, mortgage lender Halifax said on Friday.

Average house prices in the three months to November were 7.7 percent higher than a year earlier. (reuters)

EUR/GBP 4 Hour Chart | Dec 6, 2013

Euro Hits December Highs as ECB Downplays Policy Pivot

Talking points:

- ECB keeps rates on hold, no LTRO.

- Euro initially slips, but soon rallies to fresh December highs versus Australian, US Dollars

- ECB likely on hold through early-1Q’14.

The European Central Bank left its monetary policy firmly on hold today, offering a change in neither the key benchmark interest rate nor the deposit facility rate. After the surprise 25-bps cut last month to the main refinancing rate, the ECB determined that the policy change was already having a positive impact given incoming price and survey data. (source: yahoo finance)

USD/JPY Weekly Chart | Dec 6, 2013

Dollar rises VS Yen after U.S strong jobs data

The dollar rose against the yen on Friday after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data raised chances the Federal Reserve may start paring its bond buying program sooner than expected.

The central bank has been buying $85 billion in Treasury and mortgage-backed bonds each month to hold long-term borrowing costs down in a bid to spur a stronger economic recovery.

A reduction in these purchases would lift U.S. bond yields, boosting the dollar.

Still, some analysts doubted the report was strong enough to push the Fed to move when policymakers meet on Dec. 17-18. Many said the central bank was still likely to hold off reducing its purchases until January or March to ensure the economy was on solid ground. (reuters)

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Weekly Forex Market Rhythm | November 30, 2013

EUR/USD Forex Market Rhythm

Long remains as consolidation takes hold

EU maintained the tight ranges prevalent in European trading as EZ CPI turned into a non-event. 

The pair held to roughly 1.3595-1.3620 ranges. 

Corporate bids held the bottom while hedge funds were touted being on top with offers lined up to 1.3650. Aiding to cap was news that EU & IMF inspectors have called off an Athens visit scheduled next week as Greece has failed to meet commitments. 

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Weekly Forex Market Rhythm: November 15, 2013

Weekly Market Change | Nov 8 - 15, 2013

GBPUSD - Sterling Boosted, Growth Prospects

LONDON, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Sterling extended gains against the euro and the dollar for a third straight day on Friday, drawing support from hawkish comments by Bank of England policymaker Martin Weale.

Weale said in a speech the central bank could not ignore an increase in inflation expectations and may need to tighten monetary policy before all the spare capacity in the economy is used up.

"The positive tone from the inflation report as well as the upgraded forecasts are helping sterling," said Alex Edwards, head of corporate sales at UKForex. "We could see some profit taking into the weekend as volumes dwindle, but overall the trend looks higher."

Traders expect sterling's gains to be more pronounced against the euro, given growing expectations that the European Central Bank may have to loosen policy further to beat falling inflation.

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Forex Market Rhythm: EUR, GBP and USD Index

USD Index 4 hour timeframe

As the market progress after the expectation of the Fed tappering, the USD start to loose its steam against other major currencies.

In the chart above, the USD Index (4 hour TF) was facing a resistance at around EMA 365 (80.75)
after trying to break through, leaving a shooting star with the tail slightly above EMA 365.

There is a good chance that it will head to EMA 21 (80.35). If true, will provide breathing room for other currencies to advance.

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